Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e24…b6d5 sports 461 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized +$19 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%226W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$48
14 days+$102
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$123
other 4% +$63
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.5% -2.7% 56% 56% +0.5%
≤30d 83 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 57% +3.0%
≤90d 345 -2.0% -11.3% 52% 52% -5.4%
all 450 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 49% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 47% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 40% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses226 / 224
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions4
Markets (closed)450 / 461
History coverage128d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 62¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Los Angeles Thieves 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Nigma Galaxy 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$17 +83%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 28 $26 +$14 +54%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$17 +86%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 28 $24 −$24 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $13 −$12 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +62%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$17 +114%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$9 +93%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $20 +$17 +86%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$48 +233%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$11 +109%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$15 +152%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$13 +62%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 44m
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L SELL OpTic Texas 100¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 62¢ $20 1h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 60¢ $20 2h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 54¢ $20 3h
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $20 4h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY OpTic Texas 65¢ $26 4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 25¢ $10 4h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY OpTic Texas 52¢ $20 5h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 62¢ $20 6h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 39¢ $4 6h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 62¢ $13 6h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 50¢ $10 7h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 53¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $20 7h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 53¢ $20 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 12¢ $10 25h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 65¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $20 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 21¢ $10 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? A BUY 9¢ $5 45h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 53¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 32¢ $20 2d
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 7¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.00 · official $49.00 (match) · 865 history records