Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e26…d46c crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$328 (+15%) realized +$333 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$161
14 days+$188
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$318
other 6% −$27
world 0% −$6
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 45% 36% +15.4%
≤30d 33 +26.4% +14.4% 48% 39% +0.6%
≤90d 48 +5.1% -4.9% 44% 38% +3.8%
all 48 +5.1% -4.9% 44% 38% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 38% +3.8%
10% -14.0% 35% -6.1%
15% -22.3% 33% -15.2%
20% -29.9% 29% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$28 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$333
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage44d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $254 $249 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$79 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$36 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? Jun 27 $132 +$34 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? Jun 27 $44 −$11 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? Jun 27 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 27 $117 −$80 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 24 $38 +$65 +171%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $68 +$136 +200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $62 −$54 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $166 +$184 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $106 −$102 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 12 $69 −$65 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $57 −$54 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $83 −$82 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $15 +$64 +436%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $60 +$67 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $29 −$19 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $158 −$149 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 03 $129 −$27 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 02 $24 +$27 +115%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 02 $50 +$39 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 02 $42 +$39 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $37 +$116 +312%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $37 +$71 +193%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $9 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 29 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $3 +$3 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $36 +$43 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 22? May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 19 $32 +$14 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 19 $73 +$61 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 4? BUY Yes 55¢ $262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? SELL Yes 52¢ $166 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $33 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 38¢ $132 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $98 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 77¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 84¢ $204 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 27¢ $38 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $68 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 1¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 25¢ $56 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 47¢ $350 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.15 · official $249.15 (match) · 150 history records