Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0e2c…3488 sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$49 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%159W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$20
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$72
other 11% +$20
crypto 6% −$20
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 61% 56% -8.2%
≤30d 250 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 56% -14.7%
≤90d 250 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 56% -14.7%
all 250 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 56% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 56% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 42% -22.9%
15% -23.9% 22% -30.3%
20% -31.4% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses159 / 91
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions19
Markets (closed)250 / 269
History coverage21d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 70¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Austria 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Under $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Poland (-1.5) Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $0 $0 +109%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $2 −$1 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +20%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $0 $0 +29%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Cuiabá EC vs. CR Brasil: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5) Jun 01 $4 +$2 +62%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +27%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 01 $0 $0 +27%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $3 +$2 +67%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano end in a draw? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 56m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 57m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 57m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 57m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 59m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.20 · official $27.20 (match) · 802 history records