Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0e2c…9294
world · 116 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,049 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,009 · open +$999
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,273
Realized+$1,009
Unrealized+$999
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses50 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions32
Markets (closed)88 / 116
History coverage63d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day54.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 32 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$72
14 days+$259
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 84¢ $899 $1,113 +$213 (+24%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 65¢ 99¢ $599 $915 +$317 (+53%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $389 $624 +$235 (+60%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $342 $423 +$81 (+24%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 69¢ 100¢ $145 $208 +$64 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $141 $159 +$17 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 45¢ $153 $158 +$5 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $108 $140 +$32 (+29%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 52¢ 66¢ $74 $93 +$19 (+26%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $55 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 78¢ 90¢ $51 $59 +$8 (+16%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $46 $53 +$7 (+16%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 81¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 19¢ $44 $32 −$12 (-28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 58¢ 73¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+27%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 62¢ 68¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+9%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 45¢ 48¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 62¢ 56¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-26%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 56¢ 73¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+31%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 50¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $251 −$22 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $215 +$26 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -82%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $380 +$16 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $59 +$18 +31%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $8 +$1 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $144 +$43 +30%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $28 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $303 +$33 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $147 +$28 +19%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $10 −$5 -55%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $93 +$27 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $278 +$77 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $224 +$35 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $204 +$38 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,080 +$47 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $73 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $6 −$2 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $888 −$176 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $9 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $324 −$11 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $11 −$2 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 29 $79 +$6 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $31 +$3 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $8 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $66 −$22 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $247 +$40 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $575 −$192 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $7 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 25 $185 +$24 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 24 $14 +$10 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $741 −$13 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$3 -63%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $479 +$54 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $114 +$10 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $220 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 +$2 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $251 +$26 +10%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 21 $12 +$1 +12%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? May 17 $19 +$7 +35%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $38 +$19 +50%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 72% +$793
politics 13% +$535
other 4% +$166
crypto 4% +$137
tech 3% −$6
sports 2% +$398
finance 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 65¢ $1 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 18m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 65¢ $12 23m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 55m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $23 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $8 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $0 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $8 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $45 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 49 +1.1% -8.6% 63% 45% -2.6%
≤90d 88 +30.6% +18.1% 57% 39% +4.2%
all 88 +30.6% +18.1% 57% 39% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.1% 39% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here +6.8% 17% -5.8%
15% -3.5% 11% -14.9%
20% -13.0% 8% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,273.11 · official $4,272.65 (match) · 3500 history records