Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e2f…8b01 crypto 496 markets active 5d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%305W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -1.5% -10.9% 78% 57% -12.2%
≤30d 496 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 53% -10.6%
≤90d 496 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 53% -10.6%
all 496 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 53% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 32% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses305 / 191
Open positions0
Markets (closed)496 / 496
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 496 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 966 history records