Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0e31…0117 sports 1523 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$461 (-14%) realized −$460 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate69%1048W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$295
other 24% −$29
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 71% -5.5%
≤30d 152 -8.2% -17.0% 66% 63% -14.5%
≤90d 774 -5.1% -14.2% 68% 65% -12.7%
all 1518 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 63% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 63% -18.5%
10% -19.9% 49% -26.3%
15% -27.6% 30% -33.4%
20% -34.7% 15% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1048 / 470
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1518 / 1523
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 73¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $22 +$4 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $17 −$8 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $2 −$1 -28%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $2 +$1 +38%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 08 $1 $0 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $3 +$1 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $2 +$1 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 26m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 87¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 78¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $3 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 87¢ $2 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 73¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 60¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 82¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $3 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 66¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 92¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Rebeka Masarova 58¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 72¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Maria Timofeeva 58¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 27¢ $0 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 64¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $1 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 78¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 58¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 3500 history records