Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e31…680c world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-0%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,910per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$32 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7,910
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7,761 −$31 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7,780 −$31 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7,811 −$31 -0%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $7,858 −$31 -0%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $7,892 −$32 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $8,079 −$32 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $8,059 −$32 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7,730 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $7,761 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7,749 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7,780 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,779 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,811 1h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,826 1h
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,858 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,861 1h
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,892 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $645 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,237 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,044 1h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,046 1h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,079 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,027 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8,059 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.07 · official $129.07 (match) · 17 history records