Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e32…535b politics 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,482 (+25%) realized +$24,448 · open +$3,034
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 60L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day65.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$65,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% +$6,256
other 12% +$344
world 5% +$187
finance 0% +$38
economics 0% −$198
tech 0% −$152
sports 0% +$29
crypto 0% +$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +28.7% +16.5% 61% 39% +1.7%
≤30d 79 -18.1% -25.9% 39% 25% -2.4%
≤90d 99 -14.6% -22.8% 39% 25% -1.7%
all 99 -14.6% -22.8% 39% 25% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 25% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 22% -11.1%
15% -36.9% 17% -19.7%
20% -43.1% 13% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$70 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$65,716
Realized+$24,448
Unrealized+$3,034
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions177
Markets (closed)99 / 196
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$561
Trades / day65.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 177 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $6,068 $6,377 +$309 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $5,698 $6,252 +$553 (+10%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 89¢ 99¢ $5,401 $6,051 +$650 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,622 $2,681 +$59 (+2%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,474 $2,523 +$50 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $2,015 $2,215 +$200 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,978 $2,062 +$84 (+4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $1,932 $2,057 +$125 (+6%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $1,797 $1,911 +$114 (+6%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $1,537 $1,641 +$104 (+7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 71¢ 92¢ $1,123 $1,449 +$326 (+29%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,342 $1,400 +$58 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 80¢ 89¢ $1,206 $1,333 +$127 (+11%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,244 $1,307 +$63 (+5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $847 $1,081 +$234 (+28%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $975 $1,024 +$49 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $985 $966 −$19 (-2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $872 $852 −$20 (-2%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $769 $841 +$73 (+9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 86¢ $813 $819 +$7 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $911 $802 −$110 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 63¢ 86¢ $570 $779 +$209 (+37%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $531 $650 +$119 (+22%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 79¢ 84¢ $601 $640 +$40 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $467 $580 +$113 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $816 +$14 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $30 +$70 +230%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 21 $21 +$29 +138%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $122 −$42 -34%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $572 +$228 +40%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $682 +$106 +16%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $147 −$66 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $858 −$73 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $496 +$153 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $393 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +173%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $259 +$1,059 +408%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $824 −$824 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $143 +$7 +5%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $18,780 +$427 +2%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $79 −$78 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $488 +$12 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $74 −$74 -100%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 10 $1,387 −$387 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $92 +$12 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 10 $77 +$20 +27%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 10 $121 −$75 -62%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 10 $28 −$15 -53%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $593 −$451 -76%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $79 −$71 -90%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $577 −$455 -79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 pa Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 10 $502 −$260 -52%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 10 $174 −$144 -83%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 10 $88 −$6 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 5m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 95¢ $115 5m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 94¢ $74 5m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 6m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 6m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 16¢ $8 8m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 92¢ $53 9m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 33¢ $7 10m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 92¢ $12 10m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 38¢ $38 10m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 92¢ $27 10m
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 60¢ $61 11m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $90 15m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $160 34m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $262 37m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $10 37m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $4 38m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $17 38m
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 47m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,316 48m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 4¢ $4 55m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 28¢ $4 57m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 28¢ $1 58m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $160 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $422 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,716.33 · official $65,725.90 (match) · 3500 history records