Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e34…f1a7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$63 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$71
politics 31% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 3 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 3 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 33% -4.6%
all 3 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 33% -4.6%
10% -14.0% 0% -13.7%
15% -22.3% 0% -22.0%
20% -29.9% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,696
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $989 $988 −$1 (-0%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $891 $895 +$4 (+0%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $594 $595 +$1 (+0%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 99¢ 100¢ $217 $218 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +1%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 23 $776 +$24 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $373 +$41 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $989 1h
Another Elon baby by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $398 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 8h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $105 3d
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $108 3d
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $355 3d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? BUY No 99¢ $217 5d
Another Elon baby by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $493 5d
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $520 6d
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $43 7d
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $237 7d
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $19 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $163 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $140 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,696.06 · official $2,696.06 (match) · 20 history records