Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e37…5bdb sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-8%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%36W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$181
14 days+$44
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$136
other 9% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -31.1% -37.6% 38% 38% -37.6%
≤30d 69 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 52% -17.6%
≤90d 69 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 52% -17.6%
all 69 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 52% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 52% -17.6%
10% -23.0% 52% -25.5%
15% -30.4% 52% -32.7%
20% -37.3% 48% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$24 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses36 / 33
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage29d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $22 +$14 +62%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $22 +$26 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $25 +$14 +57%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $28 +$18 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -99%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $26 −$3 -13%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $25 +$26 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 +$24 +119%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $18 +$8 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $25 +$19 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $22 +$26 +116%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $25 +$19 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$19 +78%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $25 +$18 +70%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $25 +$15 +60%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $20 +$13 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $25 +$15 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $25 +$23 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $25 +$13 +52%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $25 +$16 +65%
Set Handicap: Herbert (-1.5) vs Alkaya (+1.5) Jun 07 $25 +$21 +83%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $25 +$19 +76%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $25 +$16 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 +$20 +102%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -99%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $25 +$16 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $36 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 61¢ $22 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $22 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 24h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 60¢ $25 27h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 60¢ $20 29h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 63¢ $25 43h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $28 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $54 3d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 24¢ $12 3d
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 52¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $25 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 5d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Tristan Schoolkate 50¢ $21 5d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 57¢ $1 5d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 56¢ $1 5d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 56¢ $23 5d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 59¢ $25 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $25 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $25 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 51¢ $15 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 58¢ $10 6d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records