Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e38…f50e sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+17%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$33
sports 24% −$19
crypto 17% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.8% -27.5% 33% 30% +10.0%
≤30d 27 -19.8% -27.5% 33% 30% +10.0%
≤90d 27 -19.8% -27.5% 33% 30% +10.0%
all 27 -19.8% -27.5% 33% 30% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% +10.0%
10% -34.4% 30% -0.6%
15% -40.7% 30% -10.2%
20% -46.6% 30% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$27 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$8 +103%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$5 +116%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$2 +180%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $7 −$6 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$8 +112%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $34 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $3 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $0 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.85 · official $63.85 (match) · 52 history records