Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e3b…fc0b world 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,420 (-10%) realized −$7,648 · open +$228
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%95W / 62L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days+$784
14 days−$1,118
30 days−$1,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$10,911
sports 16% −$345
other 10% +$3,354
economics 4% +$97
politics 2% +$318
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +34.2% +21.4% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤30d 42 +8.4% -1.9% 55% 55% -27.0%
≤90d 86 -8.8% -17.4% 56% 49% -28.3%
all 157 -10.6% -19.2% 61% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 38% -19.2%
10% -26.9% 25% -27.0%
15% -34.0% 21% -34.0%
20% -40.4% 20% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$374 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2,484
Realized−$7,648
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses95 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions13
Markets (closed)157 / 170
History coverage148d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $815 $804 −$11 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $608 $679 +$71 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 66¢ 100¢ $355 $540 +$185 (+52%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 94¢ $65 $94 +$30 (+45%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 50¢ 84¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+67%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $74 $82 +$8 (+11%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 36¢ $47 $30 −$17 (-37%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $64 $29 −$35 (-54%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-18%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 17¢ $31 $17 −$15 (-46%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 54¢ 14¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $158 +$394 +250%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $132 +$238 +180%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $143 +$144 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$27 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $493 −$484 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $514 −$514 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $187 +$222 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $336 +$339 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $88 +$174 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $314 +$257 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $117 +$30 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $49 +$16 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $36 +$29 +81%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $68 +$73 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $77 +$75 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $59 −$58 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $9 +$10 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $1,903 −$1,899 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $222 +$118 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $706 −$706 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $7 −$1 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $812 +$145 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $715 +$129 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 31 $146 −$144 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $111 +$22 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $612 −$21 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $8 +$2 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $98 −$96 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $453 +$306 +67%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $154 −$151 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang May 22 $55 +$36 +65%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina May 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 22 $279 −$279 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 21 $7 +$6 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $328 −$323 -98%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 18 $943 +$57 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $99 +$26 +27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $926 −$926 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $647 −$647 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $143 −$143 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $119 +$75 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $38 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $6 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $610 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $8 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $8 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $7 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $43 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $85 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $6 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $11 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $9 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $11 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $23 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $45 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $12 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $9 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $6 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $21 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $6 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $6 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,484.47 · official $2,484.47 (match) · 1229 history records