Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e40…1fc9 crypto 1537 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,419 (-3%) realized −$1,420 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate79%1236W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$592
7 days−$252
14 days−$957
30 days−$2,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,646
sports 4% +$502
other 1% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -25.5% -32.6% 43% 38% -12.0%
≤30d 608 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 51% -15.4%
≤90d 946 -5.0% -14.0% 73% 38% -14.5%
all 1572 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 34% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 34% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 13% -21.5%
15% -28.4% 4% -29.0%
20% -35.4% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,420
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1236 / 336
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1572 / 1537
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$20 -116%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$12 -235%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$7 -645%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$87 -700%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$7 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $104 +$64 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $59 −$28 -48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $61 +$44 +73%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $966 +$103 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 −$3 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$20 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$37 +128%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$46 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$62 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $16 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 55m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $30 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $64 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $59 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,069 13h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $966 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $70 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $29 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $706 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $388 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $28 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.51 · official $48.51 (match) · 3500 history records