Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e40…7a25 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 12% −$7
other 6% +$9
sports 2% −$51
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.6% 11% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 56 -6.0% -15.0% 20% 11% -11.3%
all 68 -5.1% -14.1% 22% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 9% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 9% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage575d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $53 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$9 +104%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $11 +$3 +24%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $11 +$3 +31%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 15h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 15h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $8 42h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $8 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $5 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.77 · official $30.77 (match) · 235 history records