Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e41…36f2 sports 1156 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,013 (+2%) realized +$2,013 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%620W / 524L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$842
sports 38% +$668
world 1% +$531
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -62.7% -66.2% 17% 17% -44.8%
≤30d 60 -17.6% -25.4% 35% 35% -8.0%
≤90d 394 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 47% -56.8%
all 1144 +1.2% -8.5% 54% 54% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 54% -7.3%
10% -17.2% 53% -16.2%
15% -25.2% 51% -24.3%
20% -32.6% 44% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$58 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,013
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses620 / 524
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1144 / 1156
History coverage580d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1144 Trades
no open positions (390 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $33 +$23 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 +$17 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$16 +158%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $17 +$33 +197%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $7 +$13 +180%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $21 +$19 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 31 $29 +$20 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $73 +$33 +46%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 −$4 -98%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $30 +$22 +75%
CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 1.5 May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $31 +$49 +158%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Colorado Rapids SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5 May 24 $25 +$15 +63%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $23 +$17 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $33 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Repub BUY 10¢ $5 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $12 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $7 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 6h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 16¢ $5 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 29¢ $5 11h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. South Africa: Bo BUY $1 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U BUY 11¢ $1 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 23¢ $3 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium BUY 22¢ $16 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 3d
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 35¢ $15 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $17 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $11.00 · 2815 history records