Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e41…b875 sports 1430 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,923 (-3%) realized −$4,921 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%873W / 555L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$1,173est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$288
14 days−$720
30 days−$1,560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$5,447
other 12% −$700
world 0% −$110
crypto 0% −$56
economics 0% +$19
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -45.6% -50.8% 29% 29% -50.7%
≤30d 194 -9.0% -17.7% 61% 49% -16.4%
≤90d 1428 -1.9% -11.2% 61% 54% -13.1%
all 1428 -1.9% -11.2% 61% 54% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 54% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -21.4%
15% -27.5% 29% -29.0%
20% -34.6% 17% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$62 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$4,921
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses873 / 555
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1428 / 1430
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$112
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 75¢ 70¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$51 -64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$40 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$19 +238%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$71 +59%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $344 −$342 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $29 −$29 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $202 −$100 -50%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $32 +$24 +73%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $20 +$12 +57%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $101 −$21 -21%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -90%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +29%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $101 +$46 +46%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $25 +$9 +36%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $45 +$28 +62%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $101 +$20 +20%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $20 −$15 -76%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $10 +$15 +145%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $101 +$23 +22%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $11 +$4 +39%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$8 -94%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $30 +$8 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $21 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 54m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 76¢ $12 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $15 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 86¢ $25 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 34h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 85¢ $10 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.25 · official $54.25 (match) · 3500 history records