Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e43…6583 sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,450 (+1%) realized +$2,224 · open −$774
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%105W / 60L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$706per market
Trades / day61.9pace
Fees−$1,381est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,058
7 days−$3,375
14 days−$601
30 days+$1,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,880
other 3% −$2,352
weather 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.8% -11.1% 56% 52% -15.4%
≤30d 165 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 60% -8.3%
≤90d 165 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 60% -8.3%
all 165 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 60% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 60% -8.3%
10% -14.4% 50% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 36% -25.0%
20% -30.2% 21% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$882) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$441 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$738
Realized+$2,224
Unrealized−$774
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses105 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,381
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage18d
Avg bet$706
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 60¢ 60¢ $743 $737 −$6 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 51¢ 0¢ $769 $1 −$768 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $981 −$227 -23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $573 −$573 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$132 +78%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $591 −$304 -52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $500 +$252 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $453 −$448 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $364 +$235 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $269 −$225 -84%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $393 +$107 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $557 +$278 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $309 +$191 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $457 −$453 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,736 −$116 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,072 −$419 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $424 +$176 +41%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $211 −$91 -43%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,224 −$2,201 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $785 +$215 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $805 +$195 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $815 +$185 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $358 +$308 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $420 +$480 +114%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $348 −$218 -63%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $690 +$295 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $964 −$62 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,001 +$298 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $390 +$161 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $882 +$32 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $284 −$112 -40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $313 +$337 +108%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $863 +$471 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,436 −$407 -28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,382 −$349 -25%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $633 +$365 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $520 +$177 +34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $712 +$377 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $390 +$109 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$122 -37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,324 −$145 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $554 +$315 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,229 +$212 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $508 −$497 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,293 −$1,261 -55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $438 +$161 +37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $999 +$115 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $690 +$324 +47%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,502 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $961 +$461 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $752 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $595 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 43¢ $156 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $975 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $780 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $8 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $44 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $408 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $117 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $300 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $7 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 4¢ $13 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $280 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $6 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $157 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $11 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 54¢ $266 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $305 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $752 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $500 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $453 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $599 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $364 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 9¢ $44 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $269 28h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $393 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $557 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.67 · official $737.67 (match) · 1213 history records