Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4b…1fcd sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-6%) realized −$71 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$46
sports 25% +$4
other 6% −$12
tech 5% +$11
culture 3% −$30
politics 2% −$15
weather 1% +$1
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +30.5% +18.1% 53% 53% +3.1%
≤30d 62 +7.0% -3.2% 53% 44% -19.1%
≤90d 87 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 45% -13.6%
all 121 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 40% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 40% -17.2%
10% -25.8% 36% -25.1%
15% -33.0% 29% -32.3%
20% -39.5% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)121 / 129
History coverage512d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$7 +109%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +206%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +227%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 25 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 25 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 25 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 28¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $1 23h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 44h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 2d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.46 · official $14.46 · 503 history records