Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e4b…c5b3 crypto 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate79%419W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 +2.3% -7.5% 88% 38% -11.0%
≤30d 533 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 52% -11.4%
≤90d 533 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 52% -11.4%
all 533 +1.9% -7.8% 79% 52% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 52% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 21% -19.9%
15% -24.7% 8% -27.6%
20% -32.1% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses419 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)533 / 533
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 533 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $23 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $22 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1274 history records