Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e4c…dbab other 17 markets active 2d ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$630 (+14%) realized +$630 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$706
14 days+$706
30 days+$706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,101
sports 15% −$395
crypto 4% −$108
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% +5.1%
≤30d 13 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% +5.1%
≤90d 13 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% +5.1%
all 17 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 35% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 35% +3.1%
10% -44.0% 29% -6.8%
15% -49.4% 24% -15.8%
20% -54.3% 24% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$208 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage230d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $912 −$900 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $363 +$111 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $664 +$1,743 +262%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $565 −$550 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $669 +$594 +89%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $305 +$333 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET Nov 01 $166 −$102 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET Nov 01 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ET Nov 01 $11 −$9 -79%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $10 2d
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 56¢ $912 2d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $307 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $473 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $363 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $202 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $408 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $664 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $360 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 4d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $21 4d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,263 4d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 5d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $638 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $14 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $60 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $54 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $62 232d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records