Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e4c…c962 other 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,073 (-1%) realized −$1,517 · open −$1,556
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate77%156W / 47L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,818per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$40,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% +$5,335
finance 26% +$1,594
other 22% −$6,011
sports 13% +$342
tech 7% −$357
politics 3% +$76
weather 1% +$10
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.2% -26.9% 78% 11% -8.2%
≤30d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 87% 13% -7.6%
≤90d 170 -13.2% -21.5% 78% 18% -10.2%
all 203 -2.9% -12.1% 77% 22% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 22% -9.0%
10% -20.5% 14% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.2% 11% -25.7%
20% -35.2% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,370) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$405 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$40,143
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized−$1,556
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses156 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions83
Markets (closed)203 / 290
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$1,818
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 83 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $7,948 $7,948 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,161 $6,232 +$71 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,463 $2,463 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,270 $2,299 +$29 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,264 $1,264 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,237 $1,238 +$2 (+0%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,122 $1,123 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $989 $1,005 +$16 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $995 $998 +$4 (+0%)
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of June? No 100¢ 70¢ $1,233 $870 −$363 (-29%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $766 $813 +$47 (+6%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $765 $798 +$33 (+4%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $798 $797 −$1 (-0%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 99¢ 99¢ $680 $680 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $499 $498 −$1 (-0%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $449 $448 −$2 (-0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $400 end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $449 $447 −$2 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 end of June? No 100¢ 98¢ $449 $442 −$7 (-2%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $427 $424 −$4 (-1%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Printr FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 97¢ 100¢ $386 $399 +$12 (+3%)
Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 91¢ 97¢ $363 $390 +$27 (+7%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $387 $386 −$1 (-0%)
Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $370 $369 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of June? No 100¢ 89¢ $414 $369 −$45 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 29 $2,671 +$76 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 27 $14,597 +$351 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $7,951 +$208 +3%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $204 −$204 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $4,144 +$4 +0%
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 23 $498 +$2 +0%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $340 +$60 +18%
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 23 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,024 +$44 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 03 $6,486 +$18 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $4,071 +$129 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $27,181 +$443 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $22,678 +$822 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $180 +$60 +33%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) May 30 $222 +$78 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $11,153 +$112 +1%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $132 +$68 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $111 +$189 +170%
Raphael Collignon vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $198 −$198 -100%
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 15? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $5,287 +$122 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1,110 +$18 +2%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $352 −$352 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $729 +$428 +59%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 09 $3,924 +$18 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $498 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 4 - 4 Nottingham Forest FC? May 08 $210 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? May 08 $568 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 3? May 04 $54 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 4 - 4 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C or higher on May 3? May 04 $282 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 04 $306 +$294 +96%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $800 +$200 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 3? May 03 $440 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? May 03 $759 +$1 +0%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $171 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 03 $199 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 03 $199 +$1 +0%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $203 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 03 $323 +$65 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $14,108 +$58 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 03 $10,497 +$99 +1%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $951 +$10 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 03 $1,372 +$28 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 89¢ $57 25m
Wimbledon ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Arthur Fils AND Wimbledon ATP: Mar BUY 42¢ $150 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton AND Wimbledon ATP: Thanasi BUY 34¢ $150 1h
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to BUY 50¢ $300 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,264 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $7,948 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2,463 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $7.00 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $8.00 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $141 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $139 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $293 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $350 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,133 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $270 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $165 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $165 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $328 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 1h
Will Micron (MU) close above $900 end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 1h
Will Micron (MU) close above $880 end of June? BUY Yes 99¢ $208 1h
Will Micron (MU) close above $860 end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,143.39 · official $40,733.56 · 3500 history records