Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0e54…3f6d other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$16
politics 21% −$7
economics 7% −$1
sports 6% −$3
world 5% −$2
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 110 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 8% -18.3%
15% -24.8% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage90d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 54¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $281 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $75 $0 +1%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $156 +$1 +1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $67 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $407 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $600 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $325 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $300 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $330 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $304 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $312 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $314 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $328 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $334 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $310 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $29 $0 +1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $306 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $303 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $310 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $317 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $602 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $663 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $637 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $124 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $72 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $8 5d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $73 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $150 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 17d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 19d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 19d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.