Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e59…eda6 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$377
other 12% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +52.8% +38.2% 40% 40% +11.8%
≤30d 20 +52.8% +38.2% 40% 40% +11.8%
≤90d 20 +52.8% +38.2% 40% 40% +11.8%
all 20 +52.8% +38.2% 40% 40% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.2% 40% +11.8%
10% ← realistic here +25.0% 40% +1.1%
15% +12.9% 40% -8.6%
20% +1.8% 40% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$77 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$117 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$411 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$45 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$178 +668%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$97 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$216 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -94%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $181 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$60 +228%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $31 +$150 +486%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $222 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $405 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records