Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e5c…3036 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,916 (-64%) realized −$2,916 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 111L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$104
crypto 28% +$479
other 19% +$586
politics 14% −$135
sports 4% −$78
finance 2% +$9
culture 2% $0
economics 1% +$89
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -64.7% -68.0% 27% 27% +13.9%
≤30d 94 -37.2% -43.2% 13% 9% -6.4%
≤90d 141 -1.6% -11.0% 21% 16% +11.1%
all 141 -1.6% -11.0% 21% 16% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 16% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 14% +0.5%
15% -27.3% 12% -9.2%
20% -34.4% 11% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$3 · ×15.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.29 per $1 lost it wins $4.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,916
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 111
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions88
Markets (closed)141 / 229
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 88 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+125%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+400%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+163%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+124%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $164 +$53 +32%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $260 +$57 +22%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $0 +$15 +9900%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $64 3h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 7h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $2.01 (match) · 3500 history records