Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e60…3bad sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,062 (-20%) realized −$1,062 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$15
other 41% −$1,975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -31.9% -38.3% 23% 23% -43.4%
≤30d 13 -31.9% -38.3% 23% 23% -43.4%
≤90d 13 -31.9% -38.3% 23% 23% -43.4%
all 13 -31.9% -38.3% 23% 23% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 23% -43.4%
10% -44.2% 23% -48.8%
15% -49.6% 23% -53.8%
20% -54.6% 23% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$325 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,062
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $544 −$531 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $843 −$296 -35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $679 −$594 -87%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $335 +$348 +104%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $190 +$145 +76%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $386 −$386 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $288 −$212 -74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $454 −$454 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $501 +$793 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $94 −$49 -52%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $221 −$9 -4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 18¢ $544 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 27¢ $547 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 41¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $840 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $85 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $679 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $683 3h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 48¢ $335 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $190 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $675 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 47¢ $386 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $76 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $288 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $2 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $499 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $370 30h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 17¢ $45 30h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 34¢ $94 30h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 58¢ $203 31h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 59¢ $10 31h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $221 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records