Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e61…9a16 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-6%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$82
world 13% −$2
other 13% −$3
politics 7% −$1
sports 4% −$2
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -24.7% -31.9% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 21 -23.9% -31.1% 19% 0% -10.6%
all 75 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 19% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 19% -15.7%
10% -27.6% 9% -23.8%
15% -34.6% 3% -31.1%
20% -41.0% 3% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage120d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $2 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 09 $87 $0 +0%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Left (BSP) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentar Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th Apr 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Apr 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 03 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 28 $24 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 28 $29 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 01 $49 −$43 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 01 $23 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 01 $33 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 01 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 01 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 01 $18 −$12 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 01 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 01 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 01 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 01 $24 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 01 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 01 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 01 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 99¢ $41 33d
Will Hong Kong have less than 180mm of precipitation in May? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes $0 39d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes $0 43d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes $2 45d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes $2 45d
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 59d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 64d
Will United Left (BSP) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentar BUY Yes $2 70d
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th SELL No 100¢ $48 70d
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes $2 72d
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th BUY No 100¢ $48 77d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy? BUY Yes $2 80d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? SELL Yes $0 82d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? SELL Yes $1 84d
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? BUY No 100¢ $49 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $0 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.55 · official $41.55 (match) · 342 history records