Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0e64…336d sports 308 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92,602 (-11%) realized −$89,179 · open −$3,423
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%138W / 141L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,845per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Fees−$12,286est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,355
7 days−$15,355
14 days−$24,220
30 days−$89,947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$47,197
other 4% −$9,177
politics 1% −$1,246
world 1% −$97
crypto 0% +$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 55% -19.9%
≤30d 197 -5.7% -14.6% 48% 48% -24.6%
≤90d 279 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 49% -15.2%
all 279 -1.6% -10.9% 49% 49% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 49% -15.2%
10% -19.5% 46% -23.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 42% -30.7%
20% -34.4% 41% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$4,775) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,815 vs −$3,135 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$19,631
Realized−$89,179
Unrealized−$3,423
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses138 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$12,286
Open positions29
Markets (closed)279 / 308
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$2,845
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 74¢ $2,917 $3,023 +$106 (+4%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 57¢ 66¢ $2,142 $2,494 +$353 (+16%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,700 $1,450 −$250 (-15%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $1,122 $1,330 +$207 (+18%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $1,130 $1,144 +$13 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $1,199 $1,123 −$76 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1,044 $1,034 −$10 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 33¢ $1,043 $794 −$249 (-24%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 52¢ 24¢ $1,375 $648 −$727 (-53%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 57¢ $577 $638 +$61 (+11%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 64¢ $629 $614 −$15 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 49¢ 50¢ $530 $536 +$5 (+1%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 52¢ 24¢ $1,128 $521 −$608 (-54%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 82¢ $415 $500 +$85 (+21%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ 52¢ $460 $483 +$23 (+5%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 55¢ 56¢ $466 $479 +$13 (+3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 60¢ 66¢ $391 $433 +$42 (+11%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 50¢ 32¢ $541 $352 −$189 (-35%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 24¢ $890 $341 −$549 (-62%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $910 $325 −$585 (-64%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 44¢ $342 $323 −$19 (-5%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $424 $293 −$131 (-31%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $448 $208 −$241 (-54%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $182 $183 +$1 (+0%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ 14¢ $643 $150 −$494 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $3,603 −$72 -2%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $399 +$176 +44%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $791 −$551 -70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,618 +$321 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1,454 +$171 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $2,063 +$1,879 +91%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $871 +$211 +24%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $2,179 +$1,572 +72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $334 −$331 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $871 +$238 +27%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,145 +$1,025 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $625 +$457 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $492 −$484 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 22 $1,572 −$1,551 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,806 +$206 +11%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $2,874 −$2,843 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $865 +$856 +99%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $1,418 +$648 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $441 −$433 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $486 +$648 +133%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $818 −$812 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $217 +$237 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,039 +$261 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $3,113 −$3,072 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $328 +$477 +146%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $355 −$355 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $443 −$443 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $695 −$695 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $839 −$839 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $308 −$308 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $281 −$281 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $275 −$275 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $596 −$596 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $866 −$866 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 21 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 21 $2,455 −$2,455 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2,094 −$2,094 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $1,935 −$1,935 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,236 −$3,236 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 21 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 21 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $3,415 −$3,415 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $3,933 −$3,933 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $3,832 −$3,832 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $651 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $461 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $1,687 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $538 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $549 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $460 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 81¢ $1,766 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 81¢ $1,608 3h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 83¢ $157 3h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $342 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 2¢ $6 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $13 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $219 10h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $473 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $585 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $1,625 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $1,950 16h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $400 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $221 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $14 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,631.06 · official $19,897.31 · 3500 history records