Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e68…826b other 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,181 (+7%) realized +$2,972 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%88W / 114L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$420
7 days+$307
14 days+$1,678
30 days+$2,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,709
finance 32% −$858
tech 25% +$2,560
crypto 1% +$21
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -26.3% -33.3% 30% 29% -7.6%
≤30d 202 +10.6% +0.1% 44% 40% -3.3%
≤90d 202 +10.6% +0.1% 44% 40% -3.3%
all 202 +10.6% +0.1% 44% 40% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 40% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 35% -12.6%
15% -18.2% 32% -21.0%
20% -26.2% 24% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$75 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$2,972
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses88 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)202 / 194
History coverage27d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Up 71¢ 72¢ $246 $250 +$4 (+2%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Up 54¢ 76¢ $65 $91 +$25 (+39%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Up 55¢ 78¢ $41 $59 +$18 (+43%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Up 67¢ 81¢ $43 $52 +$9 (+22%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Up 63¢ 76¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Down 19¢ 22¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+11%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Yes 43¢ 89¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+105%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Down 28¢ 24¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-12%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Up 74¢ 80¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Down 37¢ 22¢ $18 $11 −$8 (-41%)
XRP Up or Down on May 29? Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 11? No 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 22? Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12? Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 27? Down 32¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 26? Down 44¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? Up 13¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 1? Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 15? Down 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 28? Up 43¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 4? Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14? No 43¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $610? No 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 14? Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $610? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 11? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 13? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,494 +$598 +40%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Jun 12 $157 +$134 +85%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $590? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $390? Jun 12 $34 +$16 +45%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $984 +$525 +53%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $148 +$102 +68%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$222 +794%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,719 −$499 -29%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $177 −$18 -10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$22 +122%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,105 +$303 +28%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $910 +$199 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,074 −$327 -30%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2,117 −$995 -47%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $36 +$14 +39%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$78 +139%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $70 +$30 +42%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $690 +$477 +69%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,327 −$129 -10%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $351 +$163 +46%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 28¢ $14 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 28¢ $14 1h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 37¢ $19 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 17¢ $9 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 17¢ $9 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 24¢ $12 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 29¢ $15 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 29¢ $15 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 71¢ $18 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 29¢ $7 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 29¢ $15 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 29¢ $15 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $18 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 56¢ $28 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 58¢ $29 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 85¢ $21 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 85¢ $21 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 75¢ $38 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 72¢ $36 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 72¢ $36 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 71¢ $36 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 56¢ $11 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 55¢ $28 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 62¢ $13 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 61¢ $15 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 53¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.54 · official $602.27 (match) · 3500 history records