Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e69…8126 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 21% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.1%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage270d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $59 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $27 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $55 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $23 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $2 $0 -4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $18 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $6 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $22 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $6 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.87 · official $27.87 (match) · 191 history records