Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e6c…1c75 crypto 577 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$906 (-4%) realized −$904 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%333W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$954
crypto 39% +$45
other 13% +$375
world 2% −$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -20.7% -28.3% 43% 40% -17.2%
≤30d 58 -20.7% -28.3% 43% 40% -17.2%
≤90d 81 -21.4% -28.9% 46% 42% -23.3%
all 570 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 55% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -13.3%
10% -23.1% 45% -21.6%
15% -30.5% 34% -29.1%
20% -37.3% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$904
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses333 / 237
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)570 / 577
History coverage127d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $38 +$24 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$82 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$28 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.77 · official $287.77 (match) · 1098 history records