Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e6d…73f5 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-16%) realized −$82 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$112
tech 3% −$15
other 1% −$7
sports 1% −$5
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -24.9% -32.0% 22% 13% -29.8%
≤30d 46 -24.9% -32.0% 22% 13% -29.8%
≤90d 46 -24.9% -32.0% 22% 13% -29.8%
all 46 -24.9% -32.0% 22% 13% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 13% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 11% -36.5%
15% -44.5% 9% -42.7%
20% -49.9% 9% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $115 $106 −$9 (-8%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? No 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 33¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$13 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$67 +629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O BUY 2¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? BUY No 4¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 3¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 1¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 1¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.81 · official $114.81 (match) · 160 history records