Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e70…bb75 weather 1268 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$338 (-1%) realized −$343 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%1180W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$136
14 days−$104
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$74
sports 43% −$268
world 1% +$85
other 1% −$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -2.4% -11.7% 94% 0% -14.2%
≤30d 143 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 1254 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 2% -10.2%
all 1254 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1180 / 74
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1254 / 1268
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 −$20 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $42 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 −$27 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 39¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $33 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $46 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 99¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $52 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $55 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $27 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 99¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $33 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $37 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $46 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $46 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $24 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $23 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $32 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $34 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.76 · official $402.76 (match) · 3500 history records