Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e72…59da sports 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-10%) realized −$366 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%140W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$336
other 14% +$8
crypto 6% +$1
politics 6% −$9
world 1% −$14
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% −$8
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 40% -4.5%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 40% -4.5%
≤90d 87 -82.4% -84.1% 10% 8% -87.8%
all 255 -10.3% -18.8% 55% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 44% -19.0%
10% -26.6% 36% -26.8%
15% -33.7% 29% -33.8%
20% -40.2% 25% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses140 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)255 / 258
History coverage405d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+44%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$4 +98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$15 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Panthers vs. 49ers Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22 Apr 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Penguins vs. Predators Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Islanders vs. Stars Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-22? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Canucks vs. Kings Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Gobble" or "Waddle" 10+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Canadiens Apr 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruins vs. Rangers Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Devils vs. Blackhawks Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Texas State vs. Southern Miss Apr 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Deacoy (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 38m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 85¢ $8 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $4 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $5 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 13? BUY No 45¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 133d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $11 133d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $10 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 133d
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Fnatic 71¢ $8 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.01 · official $64.01 (match) · 607 history records