Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e72…33f9 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,975 (-2%) realized −$1,976 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$69
other 30% −$184
sports 15% −$1,709
world 3% −$16
crypto 2% −$9
culture 2% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 2% -9.2%
all 137 -4.8% -13.9% 27% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 8% -11.0%
10% -22.1% 8% -19.5%
15% -29.6% 7% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,230) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized−$1,976
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage153d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $705 $706 +$1 (+0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $205 $204 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,281 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,084 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,093 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $976 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $972 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $315 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $524 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,967 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $410 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $434 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,739 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,320 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,171 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $3,287 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 01 $225 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,832 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $4,143 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,870 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $3,195 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,407 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $205 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $229 16h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $229 19h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $280 20h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $280 23h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 42h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 45h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $247 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $247 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $705 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,088 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,172 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $999 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $910.07 · official $910.07 (match) · 426 history records