Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e73…d0eb sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$500 (+25%) realized +$509 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$118
14 days+$450
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$755
other 30% −$293
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 52% +1.5%
≤30d 46 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 48% +15.1%
≤90d 46 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 48% +15.1%
all 46 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 48% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 48% +15.1%
10% -12.5% 48% +4.1%
15% -20.9% 46% -6.0%
20% -28.7% 37% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$29 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$509
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage17d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 33¢ 30¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $59 $68 +$9 (+16%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $49 $35 −$14 (-28%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $32 +$42 +132%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $86 −$64 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $8 +$8 +93%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$43 +105%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $71 +$39 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $51 +$35 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$8 -39%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $91 +$157 +173%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $58 +$55 +95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $23 +$76 +336%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $160 −$159 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $61 +$66 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $70 +$49 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $25 +$12 +49%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $62 +$26 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -88%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $10 +$30 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $218 +$301 +138%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $107 +$42 +40%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $5 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$70 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $46 +$92 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $10 56m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $31 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $10 13h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $11 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality $5 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 62¢ $20 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $29 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $11 17h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $19 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $41 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 69¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $16 40h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $5 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $3 41h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $9 41h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 41h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $5 41h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.80 · official $243.81 (match) · 138 history records