Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0e78…f0c6 other 44 markets active 6d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$13 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$45
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$30
sports 23% −$82
world 21% +$24
politics 9% +$2
tech 5% −$7
finance 4% +$7
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.1% +13.2% 100% 75% +12.3%
≤30d 17 +14.5% +3.6% 76% 71% -19.7%
≤90d 33 +7.1% -3.1% 76% 61% -11.3%
all 33 +7.1% -3.1% 76% 61% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 61% -11.3%
10% -12.4% 42% -19.8%
15% -20.9% 36% -27.5%
20% -28.6% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage84d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $83 $88 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 33¢ 24¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 43¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Jun 10 $7 +$3 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $20 +$36 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $10 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$7 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we May 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $29 −$29 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $14 +$9 +62%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $38 −$38 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 21 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $30 +$9 +29%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 21 $21 +$8 +38%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 17 $50 +$4 +7%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $14 +$3 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $50 +$9 +18%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 27 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 20 $35 −$5 -14%
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $47 +$26 +56%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $100 +$59 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 68¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 88¢ $10 5d
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 6d
Another Elon baby by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $10 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 6d
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 35¢ $20 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 63¢ $10 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 17d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 100¢ $12 17d
Another Elon baby by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $10 18d
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we BUY Yes 84¢ $10 18d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $50 18d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $84 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $29 18d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 80¢ $10 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 20d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 33¢ $16 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 61¢ $14 21d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 81¢ $50 21d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 21d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $38 21d
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 BUY Yes 11¢ $7 28d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $10 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.09 · official $290.09 (match) · 75 history records