Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e78…4e26 sports 65 markets active 2d ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,852 (+7%) realized +$7,753 · open +$99
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate79%49W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,703per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$524
14 days−$258
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$128
other 26% +$1,727
crypto 24% +$2,023
politics 13% +$3,342
world 6% +$767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.5% -15.4% 88% 24% -11.1%
≤30d 21 -4.0% -13.1% 90% 19% -10.2%
≤90d 26 -2.7% -12.0% 88% 27% -4.8%
all 62 -7.1% -15.9% 79% 27% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 27% -2.9%
10% -24.0% 10% -12.2%
15% -31.3% 8% -20.7%
20% -38.1% 8% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,912) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$346 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$6,429
Realized+$7,753
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses49 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage395d
Avg bet$1,703
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,945 $4,978 +$32 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $905 $986 +$82 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $480 $465 −$15 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,338 −$1,331 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $775 +$65 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,735 +$265 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,189 +$131 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $903 +$97 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,395 +$85 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $915 +$15 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,804 +$172 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,241 +$208 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,061 +$58 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $814 +$46 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $601 +$12 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,116 +$21 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $994 +$6 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $883 +$117 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,942 +$58 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 11 $945 +$55 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 11 $1,007 +$93 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 11 $2,383 +$117 +5%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 16 $2,652 +$2,164 +82%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 29 $806 +$146 +18%
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5 Mar 29 $1,086 +$124 +11%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Mar 26 $4,896 +$104 +2%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Feb 14 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04? Feb 14 $850 −$850 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 14 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $1,689 +$332 +20%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $1,700 +$300 +18%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $1,912 +$88 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $1,810 +$200 +11%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $3,692 +$308 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $7,841 +$1,152 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Dec 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? Dec 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 01 $930 +$70 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 04 $930 +$70 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 04 $944 +$56 +6%
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country bef Jun 30 $930 +$65 +7%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $424 +$485 +114%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $2,721 +$2,658 +98%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? Jun 02 $7,000 +$410 +6%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 02 $9,950 +$403 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 01 $500 +$125 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $438 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $360 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $11 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $506 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $18 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $301 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $436 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $15 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $32 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $56 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $775 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $864 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $608 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $13 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $13 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $236 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $893 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $219 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $18 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $19 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $16 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $13 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $12 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $296 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $42 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $508 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,428.99 · official $6,428.99 (match) · 618 history records