Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0e78…c6af other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1
world 18% −$1
crypto 7% $0
weather 6% +$1
tech 6% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage478d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $71 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 26 $16 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $17 $0 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will "Wicked" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $34 58m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $32 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $4 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $37 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $13 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $34 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $37 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $37 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $16 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $16 31d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $5 360d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 379d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 379d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 379d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 95¢ $5 379d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 380d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 380d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 380d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 380d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 380d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 97¢ $5 383d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 407d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? BUY No 99¢ $2 421d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $17 435d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $17 436d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? SELL No 99¢ $17 436d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? BUY No 99¢ $17 437d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records