Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e7a…4329 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$48 (-9%) realized +$4 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$23
other 22% +$8
crypto 6% −$32
politics 2% −$3
culture 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 6 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 43% 43% -1.6%
all 11 -22.8% -30.1% 36% 36% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 36% -7.2%
10% -36.8% 36% -16.1%
15% -42.9% 27% -24.2%
20% -48.5% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage105d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 79¢ 61¢ $88 $68 −$20 (-23%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 38¢ $98 $66 −$32 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $76 +$26 +34%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $80 +$46 +57%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $68 −$26 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.88 · official $135.90 · 25 history records