Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e7a…b987 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,121 (-15%) realized −$1,062 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$509
7 days−$2,741
14 days−$1,358
30 days−$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,516
sports 16% +$482
tech 4% −$220
world 4% −$59
politics 3% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -49.2% -54.1% 7% 7% -54.1%
≤30d 32 -20.8% -28.4% 12% 12% -26.4%
≤90d 32 -20.8% -28.4% 12% 12% -26.4%
all 32 -20.8% -28.4% 12% 12% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 12% -26.4%
10% -35.2% 12% -33.5%
15% -41.5% 12% -39.9%
20% -47.2% 9% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$154 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,062
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $402 −$392 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $283 −$133 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $595 −$516 -87%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $256 −$250 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $175 −$67 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$78 -38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $332 −$92 -28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $297 −$203 -68%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$81 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $287 −$279 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $246 +$15 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $336 −$140 -42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $256 −$13 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $344 −$343 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $287 −$59 -20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$42 -27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $188 +$1,002 +533%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $577 −$233 -40%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 12 $210 −$104 -50%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $309 −$220 -71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $205 +$1,443 +702%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $409 +$497 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $61 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $335 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $97 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $150 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $79 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $76 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $212 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $321 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $108 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $75 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $164 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $33 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $131 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $109 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $108 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $239 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $93 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $93 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 108 history records