Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0e7c…4ca0 sports 35 markets active 9d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$376est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,965
30 days−$2,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,007
other 19% +$426
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -20.8% -28.4% 42% 42% -27.0%
≤90d 31 +1.4% -8.3% 48% 48% -10.0%
all 35 -2.0% -11.3% 43% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 43% -11.2%
10% -19.8% 40% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 40% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,400) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$874 vs −$685 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$376
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage143d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $553 −$543 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,833 −$2,800 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $537 +$575 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,418 −$1,400 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,970 +$2,567 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,426 −$2,399 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $1,132 −$1,119 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,782 +$2,288 +128%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $123 +$102 +83%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $361 −$239 -66%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $205 +$156 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2,338 +$2,939 +126%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $1,278 −$14 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner May 23 $1,662 −$1,662 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,399 −$1,239 -88%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $581 +$289 +50%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $204 +$420 +206%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 21 $325 +$585 +180%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $164 −$161 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 21 $538 +$590 +110%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $196 −$191 -98%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 21 $320 −$318 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $51 $0 -1%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $1,001 +$706 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $498 −$491 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,039 +$967 +93%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 19 $23 +$29 +123%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 17 $2,911 +$432 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 09 $100 −$22 -22%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Feb 09 $1,118 −$191 -17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Feb 06 $22 −$13 -60%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 04 $1,460 −$208 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $44 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $510 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $809 9d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $2,023 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,112 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $537 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $191 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 57¢ $1,418 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $5,537 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 56¢ $7 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $250 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $139 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $40 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $734 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $299 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,471 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $32 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $41 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $2 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $9 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $75 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $1,156 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $132 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $7 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $26 15d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $1,010 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $1,033 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records