Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

0E 0x0e80…5209 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$174 (+18%) realized +$174 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-17.2%	-25.0%	53%	53%	-6.1%
≤30d	15	-17.2%	-25.0%	53%	53%	-6.1%
≤90d	15	-17.2%	-25.0%	53%	53%	-6.1%
all	15	-17.2%	-25.0%	53%	53%	-6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	53%	-6.1%
10%	-32.2%	47%	-15.1%
15%	-38.8%	33%	-23.3%
20%	-44.8%	20%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$29 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$133

Realized+$174

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$98	$98	+$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$131	−$130	-99%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	Jun 21	$3	−$1	-16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$253	+$60	+24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$76	+$33	+43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$35	+$11	+31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$142	+$89	+63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$15	+$8	+53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$39	+$19	+48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$34	+$5	+14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$17	−$17	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$9	-88%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$35	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$48	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	SELL Yes	59¢	$3	2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran?	BUY Yes	69¢	$3	2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	84¢	$313	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$253	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$109	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$76	27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$46	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	75¢	$35	29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$231	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$81	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$35	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$25	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$23	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$15	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$58	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$39	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	87¢	$34	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$7	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.74 · official $132.74 (match) · 32 history records