Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e80…b9e4 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$806 (-1%) realized −$806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%37W / 106L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,054per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$42
politics 35% −$65
sports 17% −$791
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 6% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -8.1% -16.9% 6% 4% -10.8%
all 143 +3.1% -6.7% 26% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -10.0%
10% -15.7% 11% -18.6%
15% -23.8% 10% -26.5%
20% -31.3% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,377) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$23 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized−$806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses37 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,054
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $504 $504 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $354 $354 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,296 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $374 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $883 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $847 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,084 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,603 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $982 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $45 +$138 +307%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,317 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,247 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $442 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,424 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $42 +$50 +119%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $7,252 −$7 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 19 $551 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 29 $893 −$893 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,718 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $3,079 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,143 −$4 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $877 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $504 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $584 18h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $585 21h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $621 25h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $621 27h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 44h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $502 46h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $509 47h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $510 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $349 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $350 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $374 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $374 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $421 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $422 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $812 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $813 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $964 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $966 7d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $724 8d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $725 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $883 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $846 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $847 9d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,014 10d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,015 10d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $354 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.28 · official $857.28 (match) · 434 history records