Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e82…7ab7 sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$309 (+8%) realized +$229 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%94W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$150
14 days+$86
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$371
other 16% +$39
crypto 2% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 37% -2.3%
≤30d 200 +4.7% -5.2% 47% 44% -2.9%
≤90d 201 +4.6% -5.4% 47% 43% -2.9%
all 201 +4.6% -5.4% 47% 43% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 43% -2.9%
10% -14.4% 42% -12.2%
15% -22.7% 40% -20.7%
20% -30.3% 38% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses94 / 107
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 207
History coverage50d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 88¢ $97 $145 +$48 (+50%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 74¢ 100¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 61¢ 74¢ $45 $54 +$9 (+20%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$40 +197%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$7 -34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$19 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$2 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$29 +95%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$1 -46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$13 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$10 -48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$43 -84%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$16 -62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $148 +$160 +108%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $66 −$21 -32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 +$17 +80%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 −$51 -84%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 56m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $98 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $20 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 58¢ $15 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $4 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $8 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 35¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 19h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 41¢ $8 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $82 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 39¢ $16 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $15 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.28 · official $317.28 (match) · 509 history records