Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0e86…b293 world 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 673d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%52W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$150
14 days−$14
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$54
crypto 16% +$49
sports 16% +$253
world 14% −$138
politics 8% −$143
tech 1% +$6
finance 0% −$10
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +29.4% +17.1% 80% 80% +17.3%
≤30d 19 -12.0% -20.3% 53% 47% -4.4%
≤90d 78 +4.9% -5.1% 54% 45% -11.3%
all 90 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 46% -10.5%
10% -13.2% 34% -19.1%
15% -21.6% 30% -26.9%
20% -29.3% 26% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

673d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)90 / 101
History coverage673d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ $39 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $203 +$144 +71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 18 $10 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 18 $6 +$7 +107%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $16 $0 +3%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 24 $4 +$3 +93%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 22 $5 −$4 -87%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $22 +$8 +36%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Apr 21 $6 +$6 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +15%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11? Apr 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $51 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 15d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes $0 59d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 59d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL Yes $0 59d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 48¢ $6 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.73 · official $633.73 (match) · 255 history records