Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e8d…fd0d other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$108 (-22%) realized −$89 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$96
world 13% −$6
weather 5% −$12
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.0% -16.7% 9% 9% -28.4%
≤30d 22 -8.0% -16.7% 9% 9% -28.4%
≤90d 22 -8.0% -16.7% 9% 9% -28.4%
all 22 -8.0% -16.7% 9% 9% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 9% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 9% -35.3%
15% -32.0% 9% -41.5%
20% -38.6% 5% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)22 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 −$6 -26%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 13 $8 −$2 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $164 −$64 -39%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 51¢ $10 21h
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 36h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 12¢ $5 37h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 37h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 37h
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 37h
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 37h
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 37h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 38h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 36¢ $7 38h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 38h
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 19¢ $1 38h
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 19¢ $1 38h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 56¢ $11 38h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 39¢ $8 38h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 65¢ $13 38h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 39¢ $8 38h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 38h
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL No 11¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.52 · official $44.52 (match) · 76 history records