Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e8e…c2bb other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,576 (-29%) realized −$3,447 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$829per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$871now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,388
sports 41% −$1,667
crypto 3% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 29% -37.1%
≤30d 14 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 29% -37.1%
≤90d 14 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 29% -37.1%
all 14 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 29% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 29% -37.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 29% -43.1%
15% -40.0% 21% -48.6%
20% -45.9% 21% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$579 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$871
Realized−$3,447
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$829
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 64¢ 56¢ $1,000 $871 −$129 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,352 +$421 +31%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $881 −$867 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,307 −$1,330 -58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $653 −$640 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $512 −$500 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,159 −$1,140 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $637 −$18 -3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $512 +$14 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $204 +$462 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $509 −$18 -4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,022 +$559 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $507 +$431 +85%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $410 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 6m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 62¢ $1,773 24m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $406 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $405 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $454 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $946 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $881 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $978 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $996 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,311 44h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $143 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $511 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 18¢ $512 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $204 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $955 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 30¢ $619 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 20¢ $526 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 30¢ $637 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $491 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,581 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $410 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $870.54 · official $870.54 (match) · 31 history records