Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0e8f…3998 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 719d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-14%) realized −$103 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$26
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$125
sports 23% +$8
other 22% −$39
world 7% +$39
crypto 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.1% -15.9% 48% 48% +0.2%
≤30d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -3.4%
≤90d 36 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -3.4%
all 46 -7.2% -16.1% 50% 48% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 48% -23.6%
10% -24.1% 46% -30.9%
15% -31.4% 39% -37.6%
20% -38.1% 35% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

719d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage719d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$10 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 +$15 +124%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$6 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$7 +188%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Pope be from Asia? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will new pope be 70+ years old? May 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Jan 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Jan 01 $137 −$137 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 01 $29 +$10 +33%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Nov 06 $17 +$12 +73%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $114 +$23 +20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 04 $30 +$10 +35%
Will another person be the next President of Iran? Jul 06 $20 +$29 +146%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 03 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $13 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $12 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $12 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $6 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.28 · official $39.28 (match) · 80 history records