Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e90…4782 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$644 (+24%) realized +$627 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$559
sports 17% +$395
other 11% +$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 38% +0.1%
≤30d 26 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 38% +0.1%
≤90d 26 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 38% +0.1%
all 26 +26.8% +14.7% 38% 38% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 38% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here +3.8% 38% -9.4%
15% -6.3% 38% -18.2%
20% -15.5% 38% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$95 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$627
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $164 +$136 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$112 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$68 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$98 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$164 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$384 +748%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$189 +181%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $123 +$291 +237%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 +$188 +209%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $129 −$25 -20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$170 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $61 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $435 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $103 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 4h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.08 · official $87.08 (match) · 47 history records