Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0e91…ea34 sports 550 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,423 (-5%) realized −$26,424 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate74%399W / 142L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$906per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$2,441est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$12,603
other 1% +$247
world 0% −$102
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.6% -14.6% 79% 6% -19.1%
≤30d 124 +3.5% -6.3% 78% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 421 +1.5% -8.1% 75% 51% -12.3%
all 541 +2.3% -7.5% 74% 51% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 51% -11.7%
10% -16.3% 24% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 10% -27.8%
20% -31.8% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,168) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$576 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$26,424
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses399 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,441
Open positions9
Markets (closed)541 / 550
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$906
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $40 $42 +$3 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+58%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$2 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $78 +$2 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $67 +$3 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $36 +$4 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $65 +$5 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 +$3 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $27 +$3 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $57 +$3 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 +$4 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $189 −$189 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $179 +$9 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $172 +$8 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $307 −$134 -44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$4 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $276 +$26 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $265 +$11 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $257 +$7 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $525 −$267 -51%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $505 +$20 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $454 −$453 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $464 −$10 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $884 +$85 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $373 −$102 -27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $903 +$81 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $542 −$136 -25%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $422 +$67 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $513 +$37 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $600 +$37 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $261 +$36 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $534 −$272 -51%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $569 +$31 +6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $375 +$154 +41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $465 +$51 +11%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $60 +$170 +285%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $542 +$92 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $576 −$271 -47%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $775 −$470 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $605 +$35 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $775 +$47 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $286 +$184 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $995 +$19 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $429 +$41 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $455 +$40 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $78 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $67 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $36 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $65 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $27 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $16 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $13 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $38 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $57 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $47 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $57 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $46 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $2 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $47 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $46 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $189 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 91¢ $7 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 91¢ $51 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 91¢ $31 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 91¢ $179 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $172 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.94 · official $81.95 (match) · 3500 history records